Currently high pressure is dominating the region with fair weather and tiny surf. A low-pressure system is spinning off the coast of the Carolinas with a decent package of east winds to the north and some southeast winds to the east of the center. Unfortunately this system will dissipate and only send tiny to small southeast swells to our region for Tuesday into Wednesday. This low merges well east of us with an approaching cold front Tuesday night and cranks up over the Canadian Maritimes. A few models had this happening farther south earlier in the weekend but that scenario has been discounted leaving us in a cold, windy and flat pattern through Thursday. Friday also looks flat but on the bright side we should warm back up. For the weekend there looks to be another local low-pressure system affecting our weather, but at this time not expecting it to send us any swell so flatness will prevail. We are in a rather active weather pattern at the moment, which bodes well for the prospect of surf, but the location and track of these systems is not ideal. As long as the pattern stays active it’s only a matter of time before we get another shot of appreciable swell. As always stay tuned as things tend to change, especially farther out in time. For now it'll be a good week to get things done without the worry of missing out on good surf.
Tuesday: Tiny short period SE swells building to small levels for best exposures all amidst increasing south winds to almost moderate levels.
Wednesday: Small short period SE swells for best spots early but fading rapidly under moderate NW winds. It will be unseasonably cold and feel colder with the wind.
Thursday: Flat. Moderate NW winds.
Friday: Small E to ENE mid period swells filling in with medium size for best E exposures. Light NW winds early becoming light and variable briefly mid-day then clocking around to the south later in the afternoon. Could be fun for Cape Cod north to southern Maine before the south winds kick in, a foot or two bigger on the Cape than everywhere else. Keep an eye on it is the call for the day.
Portland East: Tiny SE swells. Light NW winds becoming light south winds later.
Cape Ann to Portland: Small E swells filling in, more consistent in the afternoon. Light NW winds becoming variable then light southerly.
Boston South: Small ENE swells buidling with medium sets possible. Light NW winds becoming variable then light southerly.
Cape Cod: Small ENE swells building to medium levels. Light NNW winds early becoming light and variable mid-day then light southerly in the afternoon.
Rhode Island: Tiny E swells for east exposures and tiny south chop developing in the afternoon. Light and variable winds shifting south and increasing some.
Saturday: Tiny E Swell leftovers with small sets in the morning for best exposures (i.e. Cape Cod). Mostly light but shifting winds with weak low pressure passing overhead.
Sunday: Flat with the exception of Boston South to the Cape with small to medium north chop all under moderate NW to N winds.
Long Term: Active pattern continues. Models have been hinting at an impressive coastal low several days out for the past few runs. This could be the next significant wave event for all of New England. Let’s keep our fingers crossed as this is too far out and what one of my professors would call “whishcasting” and not realistic to count on just yet.