An approaching cold front will effect our area through Tuesday with high pressure entrenched to our east. Strong southerly winds out ahead of the front generate S to SE swells for Tuesday into Wednesday. The front passes late Tuesday night but not before dumping an inch or more of rain on the area. Wednesday through Friday High pressure remains in control with below to near average temperatures. A moderate pressure gradient sets up offshore between this high and a lingering frontal boundary. This sets the stage for a limited duration easterly fetch aimed at Cape Cod southward. Swell from this source filters in Friday. Long term there's the potential for a costal system early next week.
Tuesday: Strong S winds with rapidly building seas. Short period south swell in the waist to head plus for south exposures. Poor conditions.
Wednesday: Moderate NW winds. Slowly fading medium period S to SE swells waist to head high, some larger sets likely early for best spots/exposures. A little smaller north of Boston as the Cape will likely have a shadow effect there. Should be a fun day of surf.
Thursday: Lingering small SE swells. Light to moderate easterly winds.
Friday: New small to medium E to ENE swell amidst light easterly winds.
Long Range: Potential coastal system early next week. Still way too far out to call.
Strong slow moving cold front associated with 992mb low over Great Lakes approaching from the west with 1034mb High centered southeast of Newfoundland setting the stage for longer duration southerly flow of U.S. East Coast and the potential for flooding with over an inch of rain expected just about everywhere. Seas should reach or exceed 15ft offshore Tuesday night and 5-7 ft S to SE swells in the 8-11 second period range should organize and head our way late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wednesday High pressure builds behind the front associated with brisk NW winds and below average temps. Surf should be good all day Wednesday with slowly fading but improving conditions for S and SE exposed spots with offshore NW winds for the entire region. It will be interesting to see how much of an east component will get into this swell as this will determine the size for NH and southern ME. Right now thinking there will be enough of an easterly component in this swell for a fun day there as well. Boston southwards in the shadow of the Cape will be tiny. RI and downeast ME will see the most size. Thursday has small lingering S to SE swells fading with light east breezes developing as high pressure settles in over Canadian Maritimes. Thursday tight pressure gradient sets up a limited fetch with E to ENE winds aimed primarily at the Cape southward. This sets up another round of swell for Friday. This swell should be smaller than Wednesdays and will be accompanied by onshore east winds, but best exposed east facing spots, especially the Cape, will likely see medium size swells with relatively short periods. Looking longer term the next potential wave maker looks to be a coastal storm early next week. This is still far out and models are nowhere near reaching a consensus for this potential system. Stay tuned.