High pressure over Nova Scotia with low pressure organizing off the Delmarva Peninsula, headed northeast. 15-20 kt east winds extend from our local waters eastward to the Canadian Maritimes and will kick up a small windswell for Sunday. Low pressure is approaching from our northwest with an attendant cold front. This low will pass overhead tonight bringing with it clear skies and light NW winds for Sunday. Sunday small E short period windswell for northern shores fades rather quickly, tiny background swells for southern shores. Monday high pressure passes overhead with just tiny background swells on tap for all shores, the calm before the swell. Tuesday weak cold front clears the coast by the afternoon hours, bringing with it light W/NW winds. Long period forunners from Edouard arrive later in the day with inconsistent medium sets possible for best SE exposed spots that can attenuate the long periods. Wednesday strong high pressure continues to nudge into the region with light NW winds expected throughout the day. Medium long period swells from Edouard continue to build in size and consistency with large sets likely for SE exposed spots that handle long periods well. Thursday light NW/N winds likely as high pressure continues to build in from the northwest. Medium long period SE swells from Edouard continue but slowly fade later in the day. Large sets are still possible for the best SE exposed breaks. Friday small E/SE mid period leftovers fade with light N/NE winds likely as high pressure crests over New England.
Tropical: TS Edouard forecast to continue slowly strengthening into a category 1 hurricane by Monday morning (if not sooner) with an ideal WNW/NW track over the next 2-3 days followed by a gradual northern to northwest re-curvature into the mid-latitude westerly flow. The modest forward speed in conjunction with the forecast track should allow for captured fetch which bodes well for local surf. The 2 main inhibiting factors at play here are Edouard’s significant distance and forecasted modest strength (only projected to reach Cat 1 strength….though intensity forecasts are notoriously uncertain). Still if the forecast holds we will see fun long period lines grace our shores for two days or so with good local winds likely! Plan ahead this week…..
Day to Day:
Sunday: Small short period windswell for northern shores fade quickly amidst light NW winds. Southern shores see tiny background swells.
Monday: Tiny background swells for all shores, light W winds becoming light SW.
Tuesday: Small long period SE Edouard forunners arrive later in the day with medium sets possible for best exposures that can attenuate 15-17 second period swells. Light SW/W winds rotate around to the NW with the frontal passage.
Wednesday: Medium SE long period swell for all SE exposed breaks slowly builds. Large sets are likely for long period swell magnets. Light NW winds expected all day.
Thursday: Medium SE long period swell continues for all SE exposures with large sets likely for best spots, slowly fading later in the day. Light N/NW winds.
Friday: Small mid-period Edouard leftovers fade. Light N/NE winds.