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Summary...
This page will be updated at least one time per day and this page will replace the tropical update section within the general forecast section and provide a front-end (rather than forum based) discussion page. Within the forecast section a link will be provided to this page. There are many excellent sources of tropical information available on the world-wide web thatprovide just about everything that each person needs to build their own forecast, however there still is a need for a tropical update that is purely focused on systems that develop and show potential for generating swells for the New England Region. Storms that move into the Carribbean or the Gulf of Mexico always bear watching depending on whether (and when) they make a right hook poleward and into the Atlantic, but these systems don't really have much (if any) promise when it comes to generating surf for New England. On a similar thread, storms that take nearly perfect paths for surf generation fall into the general category of low-threats for land massess so the typical outlets for information tend to tone-down the crispness of information, when in fact these are the systems that matter the most. So, we'll start a new page with a focus on New England...
Update as ofSeptember 1st 6APM...
Earl ~ 41047 is doing a great job of providing sea state and wave direction which is important for verifying that actual events will allow for expected results. Lots of energy is now stacked near 15 seconds period with the dominant direction of SE (aimed NW which is because the system is heading NW) however the additional energy that is seen from 15-20 seconds is the candidate for spreading out quicker and arriving on southern shores on Thursday. I just don't see it happening today because the ASCAT pass shows that we are dealing with a tight wound system but the S component is not large as of yet.
The forecast path now brings the system closer to New England and Saturday is likely going to be a mixed day as even 3 days out just a 6 hour shift of location and/or speed will have a HUGE factor in influencing whether we score rideable surf, a general rule of thumb is that within 6 hours +/- of a storm passage that it is pretty tough to ride anywhere unless it is inland spots. More to come on the close approach.
In terms of winds and projection, we show the GFDL which nicely captures the wind swatch with shaded contours, keeping in mind that Earl will essentially have up to 40 feet seas travelling with him, along with 13-18 second period travelling up the coast there is no good reason to discount the forecast and the idea of Giant surf is probably an understatement.
The only last note about Earl is that typcially within 36 hours after a close passage or direct hit, the ocean gets pretty calm, so don't be surprised if Monday is small, but it was too early to bake that into the forecast.
Fiona ~ Last time it almost appeared that Earl would just tear apart Fiona however just the opposite happened and now Fiona is moving slower and convection has increased. For today we will hug the general model output and go with the plausible idea of following in the seasonal rut, the ideas that exist out 3-5 days are either dissipation or stalling and staying a mid-grade tropical storm. In either case, Fiona will be the source of upticked background SE swells in the tiny range for most of next week. A more refined look will occur after the workday!
98L ~ Overnight the diurnal max and better organization with the SW flank positions this to have much better changes of organizing into a tropical depression today. A large expanse of convection may wrap around the virtual center today and this bears watching.
Next Wave ~We are now in that time of year along with a favorable MJO phase space coming up that all waves will likely have a good shot of getting some recognition. This wave is just coming off of Africa and has a good satellite representation and will bear watching.
Update as of August 31st 7PM...
Surf and Danielle and Azores Low ~ Fading SE swells and medium E/ENE (refracted northward as ESE) swells continue for most coastlines with some large sets. This signal should continue into Wednesday and then start to tick down, however with good W to SW winds the swell should be quite nice for best exposed coastlines.
Earl ~ Intense system will be taking a path up the coast and bringing with it a large envelope of surf that will likely rapidly flatten out within 36 hours of passage. Before that happens, we can expect to see long period S swells fill into southern shores likely before dark on Wednesday and then build thru the day on Thursday likely to the large range. It is a little difficult to sniff out the Earl swell at the buoys that are the prime indicators (41048/41044) because of the similar period from Danielle/Azores but once this is established we can adjust the forecast for Thursday as it very well could be bigger than forecast. Friday should continue to grow with long period large S swells becoming more consistent and all coastlines (except south of boston) should have ample surf with weather conditions going for the worse starting in the south and then heading north.Saturday is going to be a mixed day. With a close approach there will be waves of periods ranging from 7-17 seconds causing very confused and rough breakers and if the system comes close enough it won't be surfable until mid-afternoon for most spots. More to come on this system as the key point to watch is how far west does the system get. Tomorrow afternoon it is supposed to get to 75.5 West, if it gets any further west, we might be looking at a much closer system which will wash out most surf activities except for inland spots.
Fiona ~ Weak tropical system expected to take a good path however with environmental variables related to upper level flow not conducive for strengthening we will go out the conservative route and discount this as a wave maker however its general existence should aid in making sure that background SE swells exist thru next week.
98L ~ Tropical wave with a distinct signature that we will watch but nothing to talk about as of now.
Update as of August 30th 430AM...
Surf ~ 2nd batch of swells with an SE/ESE direction with periods of 13-15 seconds is pulsing on the shoreline and should peak late morning and last thru most of the day. This combined with the fading SSE/SE component, and the building Azores swell will likely prevent flatness for the entire week, as well as a 3rd batch of swell from Danielle mentioned below.
Danielle ~ System taking a more ENE path at a slower speed, this will allow the northern quadrant to have an inverted captured fetch which happens with large winter systems, sending E swells back towards New England. This should evolve over the next 36 hours and so a 3rd batch of E swells from the system will likely be in the cards for early to mid week. More on this later today...
Earl ~ System intensified over night and forecast remains on track for building inconsistent long period small SSE swells on Wednesday afternoon with more consistency on Thursday and then rapidly building S/SSE swells on Friday as the system heads due north, with Saturday producing a wide range of surf from waist high to double overhead plus depending on the coastline and its exposure to S swells. More on this later today...
Update as of August 29th 4PM...
Surf & Danielle ~ The slow forward movement of Danielle for nearly 2 days towards the NW at about 1500 to 1100 miles away from us reaching an estimated top speed of 135 miles per hour with seas peaking near 49 feet did not produce the long period surf that would have given us significant surf, however utility surf of medium levels with some large pulses for best spots were available for Saturday and Sunday and as shown on the RA1 graph there is a large area of seas so the idea of continued medium level inconsistent set-basedswells with some large sets for Monday and Tuesday remains a valid idea.
Earl ~ Earl became a hurricane today and started to make the long awaited slow-down of foreward speed but we certainly need it to slow down even more for the swells to generate as currently expected. The system will be travelling over water of 30C which will provide an ample heat source and along with upper level favorable winds the idea of major hurrican status clearly makes sense. The next event is the gradual right hook and then heading north around 70W longitude. This certainly has the potential to deliver forerunners by mid-week that should be of the inconsistent variety and also more southerly and by end of week we will be looking at rapidly building surf and potentially impact from the system. What does seem certain is that sometime on Saturday and into Sunday high pressure will build over our region, so whatever we get, we'll have offshore winds once the entire package lifts thru. Shown below is the GFDL 12Z guidance which supports the idea of staying well enough offshore but with a 950MB low pressure cruising thru our region expect very rough surf of periods from 7-20 seconds which will make for a period of chaotic breakers. More to come as this evolves as week...
97L ~ Satellite imagery and environmental conditions continue to suggest that this tropical wave has good chances of forming into a tropical depressionand it wouldn't take much more activity after that for it to kick it up to tropical storm strength. Dvorak estimates did come in at 2.0/2.0 this morning from TAFB but are now back to 1.5/2.0 so we haven't quite made any progress as of yet. Soat this time it is a strong tropical wave with a distinct general circulation and we will keep an eye on it, here is the latest floater image:
Future tropical waves~ With the MJO phase equal to 5 and heading for a loop towards the 7/8/1/2 allows us to rationalize the likelihood of future tropical waves evolving into classified systems. Sea Surface Temperatures remain very warm and La Nina is essentially in full effect so upper level shear should be less than average. However, all of these environmental parameters are just indicators and are not deterministic sources of when (and if) the next tropical waves forms into a system that eventually generates surf, but most of the guidance favors the idea of an active September and we will remain focused on checking out each wave.
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