Current Conditions and Daily Outlook - May 25th 420AM
Medium 9-11 second period SSW swells with some large morning sets on southern shores with small S swells rising in Maine back towards New Hampshire as the morning progresses and leaning towards medium size. Almost moderate NNE winds in the GOM will lead to small NE chop rising for Boston northward. Almost moderate NNW winds southern shores. 1006MB low pressure near Cape Cod with front well south and 1029MB high pressure over the Great Lakes. ASCAT pass overnight missed a good chunk of area but RA1 posts 10-17 foot seas so forecasts presses down on swells today into tomorrow.
Collaborative Forecast Discussion - May 24th 510AM
On Friday evening the coastal low pressure system should be passing just east of Rhode Island with a cold front extended well to the south and a warm front lifting into the Gulf of Maine. Thru the day on Friday seas to our south should have risens to 10-15 feet and locally 5-10 feet of seas aimed toward our NW (as SE swells) should be present. By Sunrise on Saturday the low pressure area should be just east of Cape Cod and moving slowly or stationary. As the day progresses the gale center lifts northward and is south of Portland Maine on Saturday night. This promotes the rising NE chop with moderate NE winds increasing with gusts. On Southern shores northerly winds provides groomed conditions with peaking south swells in the morning hours. By Sunday morning 1004MB low pressure should still be near Portland Maine with moderate N to NW winds as you head from Maine to Rhode Island. All swells should be on the decline on Sunday despite very pleasant winds. Monday is a repeat of Sunday with further decreasing surf to tiny levels. Tuesday thru Friday the jet streams stays well to our north and high pressure to our south allows for seasonal offshore morning winds following by SW seabreezes. A trickle of upticked SW chop to small levels develops otherwise we look to move into June with flat to trace conditions, however May certainly had its share of waves!
Daily Forecasts - May 25th 425AM
25 Saturday -
East of Portland - Small S swells rise thru medium levels late with moderate N winds.
Cape Ann to Portland - Small SSE swells rising to medium levels with moderate N winds.
Cape Ann southwards - Small N chop rises with tiny SE swells rising with moderate N winds shifting NW.
Cape Cod - Medium S swells with almost moderate W winds.
S of Cape Cod - Medium SSW swells with AM sets and then fading late and almost moderate NW winds increasing.
26 Sunday -
East of Portland - Small SSW/SE swells fade early to tiny levels and almost moderate N winds.
Cape Ann to Portland - Medium NE swells fade to small levels and moderate N winds.
Cape Ann southwards - Small NNE swells fade and moderate NW winds.
Cape Cod - Small S swells and small NE swells slowly fade and almost moderate W winds.
S of Cape Cod - Tiny SW swells fade to morning flatness and moderate NW winds.
27 Monday -
East of Portland - Trace swells and light NW winds.
Cape Ann to Portland - Tiny NE swells fade and light NW winds.
Cape Ann southwards - Tiny N swells fade and light W winds.
Cape Cod - Tiny N swells fade almost moderate W winds.
S of Cape Cod - Trace swells and almost moderate W winds.
28 Tuesday -
East of Portland - Trace swells and light W winds.
Cape Ann to Portland - Tiny NE swells fade and light W winds.
Cape Ann southwards - Trace swells and light SW winds.
Cape Cod - Tiny SE swells and light W winds.
S of Cape Cod - Trace swells and light W winds.
Trace - Noticeable swells but in the toe tocalf range.
Tiny - Ankle to knee high. For most folks this is flat.
Small - Knee to chest.
Medium - Waist to head.
Large - Chest to overhead.
Extra Large - Overhead to double overhead.
Giant - Double overhead plus.
Light - Winds up to 15 mph.
Moderate - Winds from 15 to 25 mph.
Strong - Winds in excess of 25 mph.
Light Yellow - Surf, but winds might not be good and waves won't have much size.
Bright Yellow - Surf, but winds probably not good but waves have some size.
Light Green - Surf, winds are probably good but waves won't have much size.
Bright Green - Surf, winds are probably good and waves have some size.
Simplified -Swells and Winds are provided for each day with some locale mentioned within the notes.
Detailed - 5 geographical sections from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Schoodic Point, Maine.
Approach - The forecast is based on actual data from buoys, ship reports, satellite data from geostationary and polar orbitting satellites. Guidance about future events incorporates the actual data into manual forecast of future conditions along with input from numerous atmospheric numerical models. This results in a set of expected conditions for the atmosphere which are in turn used to derive corresponding future conditions of the ocean and the results are transformed into sensible surf forecasts for the New England region. Typically surf in New England forms based on the local weather (mid-latitude) which presently inherent high variability and low confidence in all forecasts. However, a general approach of explaining the forecast and updating the forecast each day provides continuity such that the forecast can be used as a guide for expected surf conditions.
Forecast provided by Dave McLaughlin since November 2007.