N.E.Surf

Current Conditions and Daily Outlook - May 18th 415AM

Tiny E/SE/SW swells that notch downwards thru the day.

Collaborative Forecast Discussion - May 18th 425AM

On Saturday morning high pressure over our region with tiny E and SW swells slowly fading but with very light to calm winds any swell can be appreciated on most shorelines. As the day progresses the high slips ever so slightly to the east and this allows for light S/SE winds to develop off the coastline resulting in micronic chops. Surfwise Saturday will be smaller than Friday so use that as a definitive gauge. The front to our south is aligned with the VA/NC border and very weak inland low pressure is organizing.

On Sunday high pressure (1030MB) will be to our east with low pressure (1014MB) over the Appalachians connected to the remnant warm front off of Hatteras and this creates a pressure gradient that upticks the SE winds and small seas develop off the mid-atlantic states. This really sets the stage for the coming days as opposed to a wave maker for Sunday, so expect Sunday to be tiny to flat for most shorelines with a residual background pulse preventing total flatness.

On Monday high pressure to our east and low pressure in the central part of the country keeps the mid-atlantic waters in a light S/SE winds and seas will build to small levels resulting in small SE chops and swells. Local winds will be influenced by diurnal heating so expect much calmer conditions in the morning hours and then an uptick of S/SE seabreezes in the afternoon hours. This pattern repeats for Tuesday and on Wedneday a backdoor cold front clicks winds to the N/NE direction with similar small SE swells fading to tiny levels with a crusty NE chop possible.

Long Term: The slow weather pattern appears to stay in place however towards the end of next week a building high pressure system in central Canada noses down on New England and an area of low pressure forms over our region and this will likely lead to moderate SW winds for Thursday thru Saturday with medium SW chop. Details are fuzzy, this system if it were to develop in earnest and be further SE could have a backlash NE winds and generate NE chop but it is too early to call. The forecast for Thursday onwards will be updated on Monday morning.

Daily Forecasts - May 18th 430AM








18 Saturday -
East of Portland - Tiny E and S swells and light NE winds shifting SE.
Cape Ann to Portland - Tiny E swells and light NE winds shifting SE.
Cape Ann southwards - Tiny E swells and light NE winds shifting SE.
Cape Cod - Tiny S and SE swells with local tiny E/SE chop and light NW winds shifting SE.
S of Cape Cod - Tiny SSW swells fade to flatness and light SW winds shifting S.

19 Sunday -
East of Portland - Tiny SE chop and light SE winds.
Cape Ann to Portland - Tiny E/SE chop and light SW winds shifting SE.
Cape Ann southwards - Tiny E swells and light S winds.
Cape Cod - Tiny E swells with a few small sets and local S chop late and light S winds.
S of Cape Cod - Tiny S/SE chop gradually gets more choppy and light S winds.

20 Monday -
East of Portland - Small SE swells rise slowly with small local S chop and light S winds with gusts.
Cape Ann to Portland - Small SE swells and light S winds increasing.
Cape Ann southwards - Tiny ESE swells and almost moderate S winds.
Cape Cod - Medium S very short period swells and light SW winds becoming moderate.
S of Cape Cod - Medium SE very short period swells and local S chop and almost moderate SW winds.

21 Tuesday -
East of Portland - Small SE swells and small SW chop rising late and light SW winds.
Cape Ann to Portland - Tiny SE swells and light SW winds.
Cape Ann southwards - Tiny SE swells and almost moderate SW winds.
Cape Cod - Tiny SE swells fading and almost moderate SW winds.
S of Cape Cod - Small SW chop rising and almost moderate SW winds.


22 Wednesday -
East of Portland - Small SE swells and small SW swells and light E winds.
Cape Ann to Portland - Tiny SE swells and light E winds.
Cape Ann southwards - Tiny SE swells and light E winds.
Cape Cod - Tiny S swells fade and tiny E chop late and light E winds.
S of Cape Cod - Small SW swells slowly fade and light SE winds.
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Legend:

WAVE SIZE:

Trace - Noticeable swells but in the toe tocalf range.
Tiny - Ankle to knee high. For most folks this is flat.
Small - Knee to chest.
Medium - Waist to head.
Large - Chest to overhead.
Extra Large - Overhead to double overhead.
Giant - Double overhead plus.

WINDS:

Light - Winds up to 15 mph.
Moderate - Winds from 15 to 25 mph.
Strong - Winds in excess of 25 mph.

COLOR:

Light Yellow - Surf, but winds might not be good and waves won't have much size.
Bright Yellow - Surf, but winds probably not good but waves have some size.
Light Green - Surf, winds are probably good but waves won't have much size.
Bright Green - Surf, winds are probably good and waves have some size.

FORECAST TYPE:

Simplified -Swells and Winds are provided for each day with some locale mentioned within the notes.
Detailed - 5 geographical sections from Watch Hill, Rhode Island to Schoodic Point, Maine.
Approach - The forecast is based on actual data from buoys, ship reports, satellite data from geostationary and polar orbitting satellites. Guidance about future events incorporates the actual data into manual forecast of future conditions along with input from numerous atmospheric numerical models. This results in a set of expected conditions for the atmosphere which are in turn used to derive corresponding future conditions of the ocean and the results are transformed into sensible surf forecasts for the New England region. Typically surf in New England forms based on the local weather (mid-latitude) which presently inherent high variability and low confidence in all forecasts. However, a general approach of explaining the forecast and updating the forecast each day provides continuity such that the forecast can be used as a guide for expected surf conditions.

Forecast provided by Dave McLaughlin since November 2007.

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