Last updated 09 May 2008 at 04:27
Friday - small S swell fades and small NE chop develops quickly.
Saturday - small S swell with medium E chop towards dark.
Sunday - small E swell fades with tiny NE chop grows to small levels.
Monday - building SE chop to small levels with bigger sets.
Tuesday - low-end medium SSE swell with medium ESE chop.
Wednesday - medium E swell fades to small levels with small NE chop.
Thursday - small E swell and NE chop fades, SSE chop develops.
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LOCAL WINDS:
Friday - Light NE winds increase to moderate levels and veer E in the PM. Northern shores may see more of a NE component.
Saturday - Moderate N winds veer to moderate NW in late AM.
Sunday - Moderate NE winds become E.
Monday - Moderate E/SE winds.
Tuesday - Moderate E winds with southern shores seeing NW winds.
Wednesday - Moderate N winds with cape seeing NNE winds.
Thursday - Light NE winds veer SSE and increase to moderate levels.
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DAILY FORECASTS:
9 Friday:
N of the Cape - tiny levels transitions to small NE chop grows to bigger levels by dark.
Cape – small SE/NE chop grows to small levels with bigger sets.
S of the Cape – small S swell fades with tiny E chop developing late.
10 Saturday:
N of the Cape - E chop builds to medium levels with a possible NE chop develping late.
Cape – E chop builds to medium levels with a possible NE chop.
S of the Cape – small S swell fades rapidly.
11 Sunday:
N of the Cape - small E swell with NE chop.
Cape – small E swell with NE chop.
S of the Cape – flat.
12 Monday:
N of the Cape - building SE chop to small levels with bigger sets.
Cape – building SE chop to low-end medium levels.
S of the Cape – building SE chop to small levels with sets.
13 Tuesday:
N of the Cape - medium ESE chop transitions to swell.
Cape – medium ESE chop with SSE swell.
S of the Cape – low-end medium SSE swell.
14 Wednesday:
N of the Cape - medium E swell fades with small NE chop.
Cape – medium E swell fades with small NE chop.
S of the Cape – flat, with small east swell for select spots.
15 Thursday:
N of the Cape - small E swell and NE chop fade to tiny levels.
Cape – small E swell and NE chop fade to tiny levels.
S of the Cape – flatness replaced with small SSE chop.
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COLOR LEGEND:
YELLOW: small or medium surf with less than ideal conditions.
GREEN: medium surf with good conditions.
RED: large surf that requires caution, or dangerous conditions.
Some color is an estimate of "when" the scale is applicable.
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SIZE LEGEND:
Tiny: ankle to waist high and rideability is debatable.
Small: knee to chest high.
Medium: chest to well overhead.
Large: double overhead plus.
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WAVE SOURCE DISCUSSION:
UPDATED AT 5AM ON MAY 9 2008
1. Ireland Storm: tiny background swell ~ Large long-lasting system between Ireland and Greenland generated seas in excess of 30 feet last week and long period swell of 6-8 feet at 12-14 seconds arrived at far eastern Nova Scotia buoys on Monday and became evident in the New England waters on Wednesday PM. Expect to see tiny & inconsistent background swell from the ENE/E with periods of 12-15 seconds on Thursday with best spots amplifying this swell to small levels.
2. End of Week Front: Low pressure north of Michigan on Wednesday night has a trailing cold front to low pressure near Arkansas. The northern low moves ENE and is over Northern Maine on Thursday night dragging the cold front across New England with the other low staying back in the central states. This should produce building SW wind chop for southern shores on Thursday with small leftovers on Friday that fade quickly.
3. Saturday coastal storm: Low pressure near Arkansas mentioned above moves slowly E and is near West Virginia on Friday morning producing a band of SW/SE winds off the mid-atlantic states. By Saturday morning the system intensifies to a 991MB system just near the benchmark (40N70W) with gale force onshore winds for the cape and northern shores and offshore winds for southern shores. Sunday morning the low loses steam and is well east of New England. ~ This should produce small S chop on Friday for southern shores, building E swell to medium levels on Saturday for cape and northern shores and leftovers on Sunday that fade to small levels by dark.
4. Monday coastal storm: Low pressure near Denver on Saturday morning takes a similar track to system #3 and the evolution of system #3 will provide key guidance as to the specifics for this system. However, as of now the thought process is that inland low heads toward D.C. area and then coastal center of about 992MB forms just east of Virgnia. System expands in wind coverage and slowly moves ENE and is about 200 miles south of Rhode Island on Tuesday morning and 200 miles east of Cape Cod on Wednesday morning ~ This sequence of events should generate building S/SE chop for most shores on Monday, low-end medium S south and building ESE swell to medium levels on Tuesday. Wednesday would have tiny S leftovers and medium E swell dropping with a ragged NE chop developing as well. * This system is a long ways out, it makes sense to plan for this event, but specifics are still questionable in terms of how the system actually moves past our area. *
5. Thursday System: Similar type of events as #3 and #4 is expected to unfold as the northern hemispheric remains in an active pattern. Expect to see onshore flow on Thursday as low pressure winds up to our South, then move east. ~ South swell, followed by East Chop, becoming E swell with NE chop.
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LONG TERM DISCUSSION:
UPDATED AT 6AM ON MAY 8 2008
Continuation of the active pattern with an average spacing of 3-4 days per event seems likely well into May. Typically as we head into Spring the intensity of systems will start to diminish, however overall hemispheric conditions support higher than average confidence for continued optimism.
It is possible that sometime in the next 2-6 weeks that a long period southern hemisphere swell will arrive in New England. Hopefully NDBC will finish its April maintenance in May so that we have a full fleet of buoys to capture this action.
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UPDATE SCHEDULE:
Daily Short term update in the morning.
Daily mid-grade update in the evening.
Major update a few times a week, as required.
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QUESTIONS or COMMENTS?:
For additional open forum discussion please visit the "Surf Forecast Forum" or you can send email directly to the forecaster at "Email for Forecaster"
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The New York Surf Film Competition is
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