Excellent low level circulation on the visible floater...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/flash-vis.html
General steering flow puts this on a similar long term path as Katia riding in the wake but Katia had a forward speed that limited significant upwelling so SST are sufficient for more heat engines and upper level winds are reasonable. This is the time of the year for CV systems to develop...
Just to keep the tropical hype going....looks like a potential post-Katia winner.
Figures I'll be in Chicago the weekend of 9/16 to 9/19...so everyone else plan on getting shacked out of their mind during that window while I drink away my surf anxiety at a wedding
You are not alone. I have been away for the past 2.5 wks working my ass off only to come back this weekend.Originally Posted by Sunsetbarrels44
Forerunners from Maria showing, already?
Some buoys have been reading periods of 11 to 13 seconds since yesterday.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.p...time_label=EDT
"You couldn't pay me $100 to wear one of those sheep scrotums" - Spicoli
Is north of the cape getting anything at all from this? It doesn't look like it.
It is going to be more of a challenge for northern shores to get an appreciable amount of the Maria swell as the swell formed South of New England and the seas only grew to low 20's so the wave period is relatively short (relative to long period swells). When (if) the system moves Northward if it can intensify and not move too quickly a more SE swell might form on the front quadrant, but this is dicey at best and not pinned in the forecast, but it could happen.
Will the fact that this system has slowed to between 2-4 knots for 24 hrs increase the chances of captured fetch despite the fact it has decreased in intensity about 15% to 50mph? Or will the forecasted high rate of forward motion that will occur soon cause the system to overrun the newly created swell and destroy it?
I'm over this hurricane season. Bring on sweeping fall cold fronts, pls.
We are only at M. Why surrender so soon??
Are you like that with your girlfriend; does she ask you..."Done so soon, dear?"
More to come for at least the next 6 weeks.
But the thing to do is to grab a flight when one of these suckers passes north of Puerto Rico. It gives you a better outlook on the season.
"Take nothing I say seriously; it is all for banter"
The slow forward speed for the past 2 days is a positive attribute in terms of allowing the system almost to a fully develop the sea state for the associated wind speeds. Even though NHC rightfully talks about the maximum winds speeds I tend to think of the system in terms of the average winds speeds in the area that matters, so the idea of this being a 35knot tropical cyclone means that it could generate seas close to 20 feet. That has happened which is good.
In terms of captured fetch, that is essentially happening now but with seas already close to a physica limit, we can only expect incremental energy added to the system, the biggest limiting factor is that the fetch size is not large, so some energy can get added.
The exit strategy as it takes a poleward motion can have an impact on the swells dispersing from the system but in the case of Maria the storm is very assymetrical with very limited winds on the western quadrant of the system (check the ASCAT passes for zone 19) so even as this system moves N and eventually NNE I don't expect much in the way of strong Northerly winds on the western side of the system, perhaps in a few days but at that time the system will be long gone
Overall the numbers look reasonable, 10-20 feet seas near the center, about 5-10 feet of swells a couple hundred miles away from the center, then about 4-8 feet of swell a couple hundred miles further away and then 2-4 feet of swell a few hundred miles further away and then about 1-3 feet of swell in New England as of Wednesday morning (southern shores).
Fair to say Maria was a loser!!
NEXT!!!!
"Take nothing I say seriously; it is all for banter"
12 wave sets, granted, long waits, head high on the big sets, offshore winds and ridiculously Fuckin fun. Awesome.
Out of Service til 3/13/13
"If we believe absurdities, we shall commit atrocities." -Voltaire
science.
Sums up where I surfed all afternoon. Fun as hell and crowd was minimal. The points looked to be much bigger but I didn't have the energy. Maybe in the morning.
Got smoked on predicting this swell, but definately scored some of the best waves in a long long time. Light winds, Light crowds and smoking sets. Looks like it already peaked but hopefully it doesn't drop too quickly, wouldn't be surprised if this energy leaks up north overnight into the morning hours.
We scored. Cisco, not so much.
Out of Service til 3/13/13
"If we believe absurdities, we shall commit atrocities." -Voltaire
science.
Scored this morning. NH is always retarded getting hurricane swells.
Sooooo.....BRRRRPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP!!!!!
"Take nothing I say seriously; it is all for banter"
Define scored. As in a bunch of massholes and Canadians fighting over waist high waves:-)
Out of Service til 3/13/13
"If we believe absurdities, we shall commit atrocities." -Voltaire
science.
Chest height sets, all by myself and 1 friend first 45 minutes, a hand full in the water when I went for coffee an hour later.
No Canadians, no massholes in water.
But here is a truth--I prefer the Canadians than the massholes--most of them surf better than massholes, and they bring beautiful babes with them.
Water temps 62F, air temp 45F
And nicely shaped waves, to boot. Life is good.
Last edited by Cisco_Kid; 17th September 2011 at 11:38.
"Take nothing I say seriously; it is all for banter"
Sounds romantic. Good on ya.
Out of Service til 3/13/13
"If we believe absurdities, we shall commit atrocities." -Voltaire
science.
I though surfers were the #1 Quebec export until I biked at Burke Mt this weekend. More than 3/4 of riders from up there. All with hot bikes, hot skills, and hotter women.
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