Irene - 2011

[spudly]

Knowing your home will probably be wind damaged and/or flooded in a few days and there's nothing you can do about it must totally suck, but that's the downside of the devil's pact every beach dweller agreed to. At least I won't be insensitive and whine about the crappy surf this lame-ass westerly storm track will cause and ruin what would be an otherwise delightful weekend. I'm hollering good luck to ya from the cheap seats.

[dubstar]

Well, someone has money??? Are you in Arnolda?

Tockwotten cove

[McWilly3]

The GFS model shifted west at 5 and again at 11. Only a brush with the Carolinas and straight into the RI coast. A worst case if there ever was one.

[SSMIKE]

NYC / Long Island are going to get so rocked. With wind gusts at 81 kts (93 mph), their transit system has no chance. Beach property is donezo and I wouldn't be surprised to see some serious structural damage and big time flooding in the city itself.

[Ride]

The GFS model shifted west at 5 and again at 11. Only a brush with the Carolinas and straight into the RI coast. A worst case if there ever was one.

Do you mean "East"? A westward shift would move it inland in the Carolinas and away from RI even further.
All indicators say it most likely hit NYC, but areas like LI and SNE will be on the worst side of the wind field and if it retains its current size there will still be a mess in RI and Southeast MA.

[jrjr]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41004

This link is better

15'@15 sec...

[ronnieC]

I'd put my money on the eye going a few miles E of Worcester. Adios RI, SE MA, Metro Boston, NE MA, Seacoast NH and ME!

Anyone want to make a trip to Nova?

[Cisco_Kid]

We are all going to die!!!
Repent!!!

Once again "the media" is stirring up panic in the uneducated masses.
For us up here, it will be a bit breezy with some rain showers. So what??
No problem.

[McWilly3]

Do you mean "East"? A westward shift would move it inland in the Carolinas and away from RI even further.
All indicators say it most likely hit NYC, but areas like LI and SNE will be on the worst side of the wind field and if it retains its current size there will still be a mess in RI and Southeast MA.

Yeah, my comment was based on an East shift in the model. Too much weather channel and too many Sierra Nevadas last night.

[lostsurf24]

People and the media are definitely blowing this one out of proportion.
Hurricane Bob happened on my 10th Birthday/my mom’s 40th. I was in York at my beach house when it hit. That storm was much stronger and had a much better destructive path. We were forced to evacuate to a shelter. Not our choice but the cops finally came and forced us. So we spent the day with my cousins and friends at the shelter watching rain blow and that’s pretty much it. Some shit was thrown around and it was messy. But I was back on the beach that afternoon watching the giant surf.
Now I know you folks on the cape got slammed hard. And I certainly sympathize with anyone who was affected from Bob. But in reality people around here should have been much more worried during the Tornados we had a few months ago as opposed to this. Again being prepared and having stuff for the power going out is one thing. But in reality it’s just gonna probably be a whole lot of wind and rain and possibly some decent swell. Be smart and be careful. That’s it.
Not so confident the waves will even be all that good at all for this one.

Wish we could do Bill all over again…

[petergriffen]

Worthy leftovers nh Monday?

[TCbboard]

I dont think its a question whether there will be big waves on monday morning 4-10ft(depending on where you are), its really the super strong westerlies and the fact that our houses may be damaged that we have to worry about. If they can get below 25mph before noon on monday then we should have a amazing day of waves. There is way to much energy and fetch with this one to get skunked on actual swell. Even the direct South swell should refract around the cape due to size and period and give the northern shores some good waves. RI and the cape will likely be gigantic on sunday night/monday.

[nh_surfer]

I dont think its a question whether there will be big waves on monday morning 4-10ft(depending on where you are), its really the super strong westerlies and the fact that our houses may be damaged that we have to worry about. If they can get below 25mph before noon on monday then we should have a amazing day of waves. There is way to much energy and fetch with this one to get skunked on actual swell. Even the direct South swell should refract around the cape due to size and period and give the northern shores some good waves. RI and the cape will likely be gigantic on sunday night/monday.

I agree, but the swell will be *very* localized, and will not last. By late Monday you could be looking at some little dribblers. The hope is that there is a period slackening winds, and still some swell coming in before it peters out.

[That Guy]

All of this is predicated, of course, on your local constabulary actually letting you surf.

Cisco

[ISuckAtSurfing]

i wanted to hit the jersey shore today however i cannot physically get there because all highways are westbound only!

[nh_surfer]

Florida is getting the best of this swell, offshore now and macking. I can only imagine the pits at Spanish House.

[Cisco_Kid]

Worthy leftovers nh Monday?

Absolutely!!!
But only if you get up to the Lakes Region and hit Squam LAke, or Winnepesauke Lake.
The coastline will be bigger than this summer, so it will go from 3 inches to 6 inches!!!
Bring your semiguns.

[Ron]

Strangely enough, I am in Japan with a Typhoon pointed directly at where I am staying. Waves are huge, but winds have been dicey.

[nautilus]

8pm Cape cod perspective - Spent the afternoon preparing to board up the windows. Boat is ou of the water because I couldn't find a mooring available that's protected from SE. Took the sails off and checked how water that water would drain (it's sitting at a bad angle). Just checked the weather.com forecast for Cape Hatteras... The wind maxes out at 76mph. That's a lot of wind. But, with the interference of land, other than some flooding in low lying areas, I think this will be no worse than a typical nor'easter here in NE. Here on the Cape I think we'll even keep our power. Now I can think about surfing on Monday.

[Ride]

Just checked the weather.com forecast for Cape Hatteras... The wind maxes out at 76mph. That's a lot of wind. But, with the interference of land, other than some flooding in low lying areas, I think this will be no worse than a typical nor'easter here in NE.

I wouldn't bank on that.

It hasn't even reached Hatteras yet, and it will have another cycle of regeneration when it gets over water, again. A cat 2 with that large a wind field and a central pressure of 950mb will not dissipate easily.