rather impressive...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html
rather impressive...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html
Absolutely. Keep the Cape Verde storms coming!
“No amount of mermaid magic...
...or managerial promotion...
...or some other third thing...
...can make me anything more
than what I really am inside:
- A kid.”
SBSP
last time was "rather vigorous system" and that ended up being pretty good...how does impressive relate to vigorous?
Upper level steering currents will likely keep this system at a low latitude with a slight poleward jog after it crosses the deep tropics. Fortunately, the upper level flow is not as brisk as a couple weeks ago, so we can expect a slightly journey across the atlantic (as compared to Bill) which is a good thing so that IF a swell was to form, it could travel towards us and get here well in advance of the system itself. Overall shear is generally light and SST is reasonable for development.
Presuming the system develops, once it finishes its journey across across the deep tropics, the question surfaces as to whether a weakness in the ridge exists (accompanied by some form of tropical upper tropospheric trough) that nudges the system even more poleward is the main question. If such a pattern doesn't exist, then this system will become a Carribbean Cruiser.
In regards to model output, always put things in comparison and review model output, when Bill formed, some models had a 9 day forecast that took it into New Orleans, the next day the 8 day forecast took it off of New England and the next day the 7 day forecast took it off of South Carolina, so I guess if you looked at the 8 day forecast on a specific day, one could say that a numerical model was spot on, but then again...
Way too early to tell, but not too early to think about. 2 quikscat passes per day and Dvorak Satellite Estimates are the name of the game, one could imagine a NOAA G-IV flight would do some upper level recon if this were to spin up, early next week.
not really, in your opinion it is imprerssive. NOT IMPRESSIVE,TOO EARLY HYPING REPRESENTOriginally Posted by mcglups
T numbers are 2.0 but next update will sure to be 2.5 and recon it out there right now. looks impressive on the VIS and IR. If recon pegs a center and captures a dropsonde with TS winds, don't be surprised to see 94L go from an INVEST straight to Erika.
that it does...
Center is not co-located with the deep convection...I bet it is pretty windy, though. I wouldn't get your hopes up for this one. It has a tough road ahead.
“No amount of mermaid magic...
...or managerial promotion...
...or some other third thing...
...can make me anything more
than what I really am inside:
- A kid.”
SBSP
Hello Erika!
GFS model is interesting at the 5pm increment. LBAR also shows a westerly route.
DESPITE ALL THIS SHEAR...ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE RESTRENGTHENS THIS SYSTEM TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN A FEW DAYS. THIS REINTENSIFICATION DOES NOT SEEM VERY LIKELY AND THE NHC FORECAST IS MUCH LOWER THAN THE GUIDANCE.
Hey Erika, I've got your windshear right here
"... tried yesterday to get away, and hitchike to the beach."
The stronger it gets the north it is supposed to travel. However, it may not even survive the shear.
No one knows where this system will be in 60 hours. Let alone 120.
Swells from Erika passed 41049 around mid-day today at 5 feet at 10 seconds. Simple math puts 2 foot SE swells at 11 second period in New England Waters around time of Sunset on Friday, give or take a few hours. However, as these swells march their last 200 miles toward us they will get slightly chattered from the ENE fetch that is to our south. ~ On Saturday most coastlines exposed to SE swell should have a pulse, but it certainly will be a fraction of the waves experienced the past weekends.
what do you think maine will be seeing on sat/sun? anything good?
check the forecast page. Local winds and tides will be heavy influencers...
McGulps,
I have to express my extreme displeasure at the current forecast. You have blatently ignored to the new, and prefered, Chewbacca method of wave measurement. As was determined in the "For the sake of argument" thread, the Chewbacca method has proven to be the most accurate and entertaining method of wave measurement. It maintains its accuracy on both mainland and Hawaiin scales. Please adjust your current forecast accordlingy (note; for tiny to small days, Ewok's may prove to be a more reasonable measurement).
Sincerely,
Surfingsucks
actually, we are going with jawa. the swell will be jawa by the time it gets here according to jedi mcgulps. ewok is way to cuddly. jawa, menacing, untrustworthy, kinda shitty like small waves, and cooler.
Out of Service til 3/13/13
"If we believe absurdities, we shall commit atrocities." -Voltaire
science.
sounds like a reasonable swap. i'm on board
this weekend's waves seem pretty C3PO to me
Here's a lil gangsta, short in size
A t-shirt and Levi's is his only disguise
Built like a tank yet hard to hit
Ice Cube and Eazy E cold runnin s**t
Pro Rida
If by "C3PO" you mean "sh*t," then yep.
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